Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
